Reliable Uncertain Evidence Modeling in Bayesian Networks by Credal Networks

A reliable modeling of uncertain evidence in Bayesian networks based on a set-valued quantification is proposed. Both soft and virtual evidences are considered. We show that evidence propagation in this setup can be reduced to standard updating in an augmented credal network, equivalent to a set of consistent Bayesian networks. A characterization of the computational complexity for this task is derived together with an efficient exact procedure for a subclass of instances. In the case of multiple uncertain evidences over the same variable, the proposed procedure can provide a set-valued version of the geometric approach to opinion pooling.Comment: 19 page

Generalized belief change with imprecise probabilities and graphical models

We provide a theoretical investigation of probabilistic belief revision in complex frameworks, under extended conditions of uncertainty, inconsistency and imprecision. We motivate our kinematical approach by specializing our discussion to probabilistic reasoning with graphical models, whose modular representation allows for efficient inference. Most results in this direction are derived from the relevant work of Chan and Darwiche (2005), that first proved the inter-reducibility of virtual and probabilistic evidence. Such forms of information, deeply distinct in their meaning, are extended to the conditional and imprecise frameworks, allowing further generalizations, e.g. to experts' qualitative assessments. Belief aggregation and iterated revision of a rational agent's belief are also explored

Quantifying the effect of sampling plot size on the estimation of structural indicators in old-growth forest stands

There is increasing awareness that structure-based indicators should be considered for assessing the biological value of late successional forests. In order to increase the unique habitat features critical for old-growth associated species, it is important to identify and rank candidate potential forest sites on the basis of their distinctive structural features. Data on living and deadwood components for the identification of old-growth condition are usually acquired in the considered forest stands by two sampling survey: (i) census performed in relatively large monitoring sites; (ii) network of small sampling units, on which inventory practices are usually based. Several authors argued that choosing between these survey strategies might have substantial effects on the values of common indicators of old-growth condition. Our study aims at (i) assessing the total estimate differences among old-growth structural indicators measured in field plots with different sizes, and (ii) defining the optimal sample size for the reliable assessment of such indicators. The study was carried out in six beech dominated forest stands on the Apennines range in Italy. In each stand, living and deadwood components were surveyed and geocoded in 1-ha square areas. Based on these dataset, circular plots with radii ranging from 4 m up to 20 m were then considered in order to quantify the effect of sampling plot size on the estimation of four structural indicators: (1) number of living trees; (2) number of large trees (dbhP50 cm); (3) total deadwood volume; (4) number of deadwood elements (snags, dead standing trees; lying dead trees, lying deadwood)with dbh (or average diameter for lying deadwood)P30 cm. We found that the size of the sampling plots should be at least 500 m2 in order to establish a database for the assessment of the investigated indicators. The census approach should be preferred to the sampling plot approach for old-growth forest stands smaller than 3–5 ha. The achieved results contribute to define assessment protocols for characterizing and ranking the degree to which forest stands approximate old-growth condition based on standardized indicators.L'articolo è disponibile sul sito dell'editore www.elsevier.com/locate/forec

Therapeutic potential of MEK inhibition in acute myelogenous leukemia: rationale for "vertical" and "lateral" combination strategies

: In hematological malignancies, constitutive activation of the RAF/MEK/ERK pathway is frequently observed, conveys a poor prognosis, and constitutes a promising target for therapeutic intervention. Here, we investigated the molecular and functional effects of pharmacological MEK inhibition in cell line models of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and freshly isolated primary AML samples. The small-molecule, ATP-non-competitive, MEK inhibitor PD0325901 markedly inhibited ERK phosphorylation and growth of several AML cell lines and approximately 70 % of primary AML samples. Growth inhibition was due to G(1)-phase arrest and induction of apoptosis. Transformation by constitutively active upstream pathway elements (HRAS, RAF-1, and MEK) rendered FDC-P1 cells exquisitely prone to PD0325901-induced apoptosis. Gene and protein expression profiling revealed a selective effect of PD0325901 on ERK phosphorylation and compensatory upregulation of the RAF/MEK and AKT/p70( S6K ) kinase modules, potentially mediating resistance to drug-induced growth inhibition. Consequently, in appropriate cellular contexts, both "vertical" (i.e., inhibition of RAF and MEK along the MAPK pathway) and "lateral" (i.e., simultaneous inhibition of the MEK/ERK and mTOR pathways) combination strategies may result in synergistic anti-leukemic effects. Overall, MEK inhibition exerts potent growth inhibitory and proapoptotic activity in preclinical models of AML, particularly in combination with other pathway inhibitors. Deeper understanding of the molecular mechanisms of action of MEK inhibitors will likely translate into more effective targeted strategies for the treatment of AML

Bollettino Sismico Italiano: Analisys of Early Aftershocks of the 2016 MW 6.0 Amatrice, MW 5.9 Visso and MW 6.5 Norcia earthquakes in Central Italy

The Amatrice-Visso-Norcia seismic sequence is the most important of the last 30 years in Italy. The seismic sequence started on 24 August, 2016 and still is ongoing in central Apennines. At the end of February 2017 more than 57,000 events were located, 80,000 events up to the end of September 2017 (Fig. 1). The mainshocks of the sequence occurred on 24 August 2016 (Mw 6.0 and Mw 5.4), 26 October 2016 (Mw 5.4 and Mw 5.9), 30 October 2016 (Mw 6.5), 18 January 2017 (four earthquakes Mw≥ 5.0). In this seismic sequence, all the waveforms recorded by temporary stations deployed by the SISMIKO emergency group (stations T12**; Moretti et al., 2016) where available in real- time at the surveillance room of INGV. Because of the high level of seismicity and the dense seismic network installed in the region, more than 150 events per day were located at the end of February 2017; still 60 events per day were located up to the end of August 2017.The Amatrice-Visso-Norcia is the most important seismic sequence since 2015, the time when the analysis procedures of the BSI group (Bollettino Sismico Italiano) were revised (Nardi et al., 2015). BSI is now available every four months on the web: bulletins contain revised earthquakes (location and magnitude) with ML≥ 1.5, quasi-real time revision of ML≥ 3.5 earthquakes and phase arrivals from waveforms recorded on seismic stations available from the European Integrated Data Archive (EIDA), (Mazza et al., 2012). These last procedures allow the integration of signals from temporary seismic stations (Moretti et al., 2014) installed by the emergency group SISMIKO (Moretti and Sismiko working group, 2016), even when they are not in real time transmission, if they are rapidly archived in EIDA, together with real time signals from the seismic stations of the permanent INGV network. The analysis strategy of the BSI group for the Amatrice -Visso - Norcia seismic sequence (AVN.s.s in the following) was to select the earthquakes located in the box with min/max latitude: 42.2/43.2 - and min/max longitude: 12.4/14.1 to prepare a special volume of BSI on the seismic sequence.PublishedTrieste, Italy1SR. TERREMOTI - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

Dietary intakes in infertile women a pilot study

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Thrombotic and bleeding complications in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and severe COVID-19: a study of ERIC, the European Research Initiative on CLL

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) may be more susceptible to COVID-19 related poor outcomes, including thrombosis and death, due to the advanced age, the presence of comorbidities, and the disease and treatment-related immune deficiency. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of thrombosis and bleeding in patients with CLL affected by severe COVID-19. METHODS: This is a retrospective multicenter study conducted by ERIC, the European Research Initiative on CLL, including patients from 79 centers across 22 countries. Data collection was conducted between April and May 2021. The COVID-19 diagnosis was confirmed by the real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay for SARS-CoV-2 on nasal or pharyngeal swabs. Severe cases of COVID-19 were defined by hospitalization and the need of oxygen or admission into ICU. Development and type of thrombotic events, presence and severity of bleeding complications were reported during treatment for COVID-19. Bleeding events were classified using ISTH definition. STROBE recommendations were used in order to enhance reporting. RESULTS: A total of 793 patients from 79 centers were included in the study with 593 being hospitalized (74.8%). Among these, 511 were defined as having severe COVID: 162 were admitted to the ICU while 349 received oxygen supplementation outside the ICU. Most patients (90.5%) were receiving thromboprophylaxis. During COVID-19 treatment, 11.1% developed a thromboembolic event, while 5.0% experienced bleeding. Thrombosis developed in 21.6% of patients who were not receiving thromboprophylaxis, in contrast to 10.6% of patients who were on thromboprophylaxis. Bleeding episodes were more frequent in patients receiving intermediate/therapeutic versus prophylactic doses of low-molecular-weight heparin (LWMH) (8.1% vs. 3.8%, respectively) and in elderly. In multivariate analysis, peak D-dimer level and C-reactive protein to albumin ratio were poor prognostic factors for thrombosis occurrence (OR?=?1.022, 95%CI 1.007?1.038 and OR?=?1.025, 95%CI 1.001?1.051, respectively), while thromboprophylaxis use was protective (OR?=?0.199, 95%CI 0.061?0.645). Age and LMWH intermediate/therapeutic dose administration were prognostic factors in multivariate model for bleeding (OR?=?1.062, 95%CI 1.017-1.109 and OR?=?2.438, 95%CI 1.023-5.813, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CLL affected by severe COVID-19 are at a high risk of thrombosis if thromboprophylaxis is not used, but also at increased risk of bleeding under the LMWH intermediate/therapeutic dose administration

COVID-19 severity and mortality in patients with CLL: an update of the international ERIC and Campus CLL study

Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) may be more susceptible to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to age, disease, and treatment-related immunosuppression. We aimed to assess risk factors of outcome and elucidate the impact of CLL-directed treatments on the course of COVID-19. We conducted a retrospective, international study, collectively including 941 patients with CLL and confirmed COVID-19. Data from the beginning of the pandemic until March 16, 2021, were collected from 91 centers. The risk factors of case fatality rate (CFR), disease severity, and overall survival (OS) were investigated. OS analysis was restricted to patients with severe COVID-19 (definition: hospitalization with need of oxygen or admission into an intensive care unit). CFR in patients with severe COVID-19 was 38.4%. OS was inferior for patients in all treatment categories compared to untreated (p < 0.001). Untreated patients had a lower risk of death (HR = 0.54, 95% CI:0.41–0.72). The risk of death was higher for older patients and those suffering from cardiac failure (HR = 1.03, 95% CI:1.02–1.04; HR = 1.79, 95% CI:1.04–3.07, respectively). Age, CLL-directed treatment, and cardiac failure were significant risk factors of OS. Untreated patients had a better chance of survival than those on treatment or recently treated